Blackjack Odds & House Edge Explained

The hard 16 is a hand that divides many players in terms of whether to hit or stand. If you follow the basic blackjack strategy, you must choose to hit. But you should do this only if the dealer’s up card is a 7 or 8.

But, the same strategy also reveals that you must surrender if the dealer’s face-up card is a 9 or a 10. These situations don’t come with the best blackjack odds, as the chances of going bust are pretty high. However, the chances of getting into a such round are lower than the dealer getting a hand value of 17 or higher.

While you play blackjack online, you might get a total hand value of 12, while the dealer’s first card is 4. It’s a situation that features very close payout odds for both hands.

Here, the dealer busts 40% of the time, if their up card is 4. This means that you have a 60% chance of losing in online blackjack if you decide to stand. On the other hand, if you choose to hit, then the paying odds are a little bit better. It gives you a 58% probability of losing as well as a 2% chance of a push.

The advantage of the hit option is slight. But, we still recommend you choose the stand option and wait for the dealer to go bust.

Always split a blackjack hand if you get a pair of 4s against the dealer’s 5 or 6. You must make the same decision when getting two Aces as your first two cards. But, in the event of getting a pair of 5s, you should never split your hand. This decision will help you get a lower house edge on blackjack.

However, the tough part comes when you get other types of pairs, such as 2s, 3s, or 6s. In this occurrence, you must always split them if the dealer’s up card is between 2 and 6.

If the dealer’s first card is a 7 and you’ve got a pair of 2s or 3s, then you must split them. That way, you’ll get the best odds out of that particular situation. But, if you decide not to split a pair of 2s, 3s, or 4s, then hitting is the must-do choice. The same goes if you get a pair of 5s against any dealer’s up card.

Next, consider doubling down if you have a hand value of 20 against the dealer’s 2-9. Finally, split your 6s if the dealer has a 6, but hit another card if the dealer has a 7.

Perfect pairs are a side bet that you can find in almost all blackjack casino games. It allows you to bet on your first two cards and their possible combinations. For instance, you can bet on the two cards featuring the same value, the same value and color, or them being identical.

Now, the chances of winning such side bets are very slim. The probability of getting two cards of the same value is 3.86%. Getting two cards of the same value and color comes with a probability of 1.93%.

The worst probability of winning comes when you bet on getting two identical cards. This type of bet gives you a 1.69% chance of winning. It’s worth mentioning that the house edge for perfect pair side bets goes between 2% and 11%.

First, we have the American Blackjack version, which you can also find as classic blackjack at most online casinos. It comes with 8 number of decks of 52 cards and a blackjack house edge of 0.61%.

The chances of winning in this variant go up to 42.22%, while the probability of landing blackjack is 4.75%. In American blackjack, the odds of winning are set at 3/2, meaning that you’ll receive 1.5x your initial bet on a winning round.

For instance, if you bet $100 for a round of blackjack and end up winning, then the payout would be $250. Your initial profit from this single winning round would be $150.

Next, we have European Blackjack, a type of blackjack that you can find at many gaming sites as well as brick-and-mortar casinos. This variant uses only 2 decks of cards.

The house rules in this variant forbid the dealer from hitting a soft 17. They also cannot look at their cards, which is tricky as you don’t know whether you’re playing a losing hand. Both rules form a perfect balance of the game, which takes the blackjack odds at around 42%.

On the other hand, this variant features a lower blackjack house edge as it sits at 0.39%. The blackjack payouts are 3/2, the same as on American blackjack.

Another highly popular blackjack version that you should know about is Live Dealer Blackjack. As the name clearly indicates, in this type of game, a dealer conducts the game via a live stream. This allows you to enjoy a game of blackjack from anywhere without the need to travel to a land-based casino.

The lowest house edge in these live casino blackjack titles goes as low as 0.49%. On the other hand, the highest house edge in live blackjack goes up to 0.72%. As for the odds, they are usually pretty good, as they tend to pay 3/2.

In Blackjack Switch, you get to play with two hands simultaneously. You are free to switch between hands during a round as well as swap cards to construct the best possible hands. The game’s other rules here are identical to the ones on American blackjack.

It’s worth mentioning that the house edge in Blackjack Switch is 0.58%. This house edge is actually lower than the one on American blackjack. But, this variant pays less than the American version, as the winning odds are 1/1.

This is far away from the best blackjack payout, which is why many players consider choosing a different blackjack version. Yet, it still comes with the same winning probability of 42%.

Free Bet Blackjack is a special variant where you’re able to make certain moves for free. Among the rules are increasing or doubling your bet mid-game whenever you have a hard 9, 10, or 11. You can also split or use two identical cards in two separate hands.

However, we must point out that this variant comes with a 1%, which is the highest of all blackjack versions. This reduces your chances of winning blackjack considerably. On the other hand, the payout is set at 3/2, which slightly evens out the setback.

Lastly, we have another popular blackjack version where all the cards on the table are face-up. It also comes with a pretty high house edge for a blackjack title, as it goes up to 0.85% But, the probability of winning stays at 42%, just like in other types of blackjack.

The winning odds here are 1/1, which is smaller than most versions of this casino game. You must also remember that in Face-Up 21 Blackjack, a tie can only end in a loss. Regardless of some of the less-convincing parameters, this variant is still good for beginners.