Blackjack Odds & House Edge Explained

Jun 4, 2024
13 mins read

Blackjack is one of the most played table games in the world and is featured in every top land-based and online casino. This casino game comes with super fun gameplay and pretty simple rules. However, the blackjack odds can sometimes trouble beginners as well as some experienced players.

Understanding how the odds work in a blackjack game is crucial for gaining an advantage and increasing your chances of winning. If you want to learn about the odds of winning blackjack, then you’re on the right page. Below, we’ll explain everything that you need to know about this topic and much more.

What Are Blackjack Odds?

The blackjack odds show your chances of winning a round in this card game based on the cards dealt on the table. This includes your total hand value against the dealer’s face-up card.

You must know that the overall odds in blackjack are different for the player and the dealer. The chances of a player winning blackjack are 42.22%. On the other hand, the dealer has a 49.1% odds of winning blackjack. We must also mention that the odds of getting a tie in a blackjack game are 8.48%.

Keep in mind that the odds of winning a round vary between the blackjack games. We’ll reveal more about this topic further down in this article.

Player’s Blackjack Odds Table

The odds of winning a blackjack round largely depend on your initial cards, or more specifically, on your hand value. According to the sum of your two cards, you can calculate the blackjack probability of winning against the dealer.

Knowing the odds of winning blackjack can greatly help you make the right decision during your gaming experience. Because of that, you must be aware of the bust probability in a game of blackjack.

It’s important to understand blackjack probability and how it affects the odds before you start playing with real money. That way, you can identify your advantages and disadvantages during a blackjack game. In the table below, you’ll find the probability of going bust, depending on your first two dealt cards.

Hand Value Probability
11 or below 0%
12 31%
13 39%
14 56%
15 58%
16 62%
17 69%
18 77%
19 89%
20 92%
21 100%

The Dealer’s Blackjack Odds Table

As we stated earlier, the dealer’s odds of winning in this game are greater than the player’s. This advantage comes as a result of going second, right after you make your final move. The dealer can make a decision much easier after knowing your hand value.

However, we must note that the dealer must follow specific rules during the online blackjack games. This is due to the different rules in each blackjack version, which can slightly change the dealer odds.

Some variants restrict the dealer to standing on soft 17. During such a blackjack table game, the dealer has fewer chances of winning compared to the dealer that hits on soft 17.

The table below will show you how the probability of the dealer busting changes depending on its first face-up card. We’ve also decided to reveal how the house rules can affect the probability of the dealer going bust.

Dealer’s First Card Probability (Hit on 17) Probability (Stand on 17)
Ace 20% 17%
2 36% 35%
3 38% 37%
4 40% 40%
5 42% 42%
6 44% 42%
7 26% 26%
8 24% 24%
9 23% 23%
10 23% 23%

Blackjack Odds to Win a Tricky Hand

Every experienced blackjack player knows that you can win a blackjack payout with an easy hand or a particularly hard hand. The latter is, without mentioning, much more difficult to play with as it can go either way. During a tricky hand, the blackjack house odds are very close to the player’s odds.

The dealer’s face-up card can be of great help when you find yourself with a difficult hand to manage. But, the visible card can also cause some additional troubles.

Because of that, we’ve decided to help you out with this type of situation. We’ll explain the trickiest hand combination and the dealer’s face-up card that you might come across while playing online blackjack. That way, you’ll know how the blackjack odds will affect your blackjack payouts during these hands.

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Hard 16

The hard 16 is a hand that divides many players in terms of whether to hit or stand. If you follow the basic blackjack strategy, you must choose to hit. But you should do this only if the dealer’s up card is a 7 or 8.

But, the same strategy also reveals that you must surrender if the dealer’s face-up card is a 9 or a 10. These situations don’t come with the best blackjack odds, as the chances of going bust are pretty high. However, the chances of getting into a such round are lower than the dealer getting a hand value of 17 or higher.

12 vs Dealer 4

While you play blackjack online, you might get a total hand value of 12, while the dealer’s first card is 4. It’s a situation that features very close payout odds for both hands.

Here, the dealer busts 40% of the time, if their up card is 4. This means that you have a 60% chance of losing in online blackjack if you decide to stand. On the other hand, if you choose to hit, then the paying odds are a little bit better. It gives you a 58% probability of losing as well as a 2% chance of a push.

The advantage of the hit option is slight. But, we still recommend you choose the stand option and wait for the dealer to go bust.

Low Pairs

Always split a blackjack hand if you get a pair of 4s against the dealer’s 5 or 6. You must make the same decision when getting two Aces as your first two cards. But, in the event of getting a pair of 5s, you should never split your hand. This decision will help you get a lower house edge on blackjack.

However, the tough part comes when you get other types of pairs, such as 2s, 3s, or 6s. In this occurrence, you must always split them if the dealer’s up card is between 2 and 6.

If the dealer’s first card is a 7 and you’ve got a pair of 2s or 3s, then you must split them. That way, you’ll get the best odds out of that particular situation. But, if you decide not to split a pair of 2s, 3s, or 4s, then hitting is the must-do choice. The same goes if you get a pair of 5s against any dealer’s up card.

Next, consider doubling down if you have a hand value of 20 against the dealer’s 2-9. Finally, split your 6s if the dealer has a 6, but hit another card if the dealer has a 7.

Perfect Pairs

Perfect pairs are a side bet that you can find in almost all blackjack casino games. It allows you to bet on your first two cards and their possible combinations. For instance, you can bet on the two cards featuring the same value, the same value and color, or them being identical.

Now, the chances of winning such side bets are very slim. The probability of getting two cards of the same value is 3.86%. Getting two cards of the same value and color comes with a probability of 1.93%.

The worst probability of winning comes when you bet on getting two identical cards. This type of bet gives you a 1.69% chance of winning. It’s worth mentioning that the house edge for perfect pair side bets goes between 2% and 11%.

Blackjack Odds by Game Variations

At the best online casinos, you’ll come across several different types of blackjack variants. Now, each version comes with unique blackjack odds. This means that the house edge in blackjack may also vary. These details are super important for you to know about before you start playing blackjack.

Below, we’ll reveal the blackjack odds of some of the most popular variants of this casino game.

American / Classic Blackjack

First, we have the American Blackjack version, which you can also find as classic blackjack at most online casinos. It comes with 8 number of decks of 52 cards and a blackjack house edge of 0.61%.

The chances of winning in this variant go up to 42.22%, while the probability of landing blackjack is 4.75%. In American blackjack, the odds of winning are set at 3/2, meaning that you’ll receive 1.5x your initial bet on a winning round.

For instance, if you bet $100 for a round of blackjack and end up winning, then the payout would be $250. Your initial profit from this single winning round would be $150.

European Blackjack

Next, we have European Blackjack, a type of blackjack that you can find at many gaming sites as well as brick-and-mortar casinos. This variant uses only 2 decks of cards.

The house rules in this variant forbid the dealer from hitting a soft 17. They also cannot look at their cards, which is tricky as you don’t know whether you’re playing a losing hand. Both rules form a perfect balance of the game, which takes the blackjack odds at around 42%.

On the other hand, this variant features a lower blackjack house edge as it sits at 0.39%. The blackjack payouts are 3/2, the same as on American blackjack.

Live Dealer Blackjack

Another highly popular blackjack version that you should know about is Live Dealer Blackjack. As the name clearly indicates, in this type of game, a dealer conducts the game via a live stream. This allows you to enjoy a game of blackjack from anywhere without the need to travel to a land-based casino.

The lowest house edge in these live casino blackjack titles goes as low as 0.49%. On the other hand, the highest house edge in live blackjack goes up to 0.72%. As for the odds, they are usually pretty good, as they tend to pay 3/2.

Switch Blackjack

In Blackjack Switch, you get to play with two hands simultaneously. You are free to switch between hands during a round as well as swap cards to construct the best possible hands. The game’s other rules here are identical to the ones on American blackjack.

It’s worth mentioning that the house edge in Blackjack Switch is 0.58%. This house edge is actually lower than the one on American blackjack. But, this variant pays less than the American version, as the winning odds are 1/1.

This is far away from the best blackjack payout, which is why many players consider choosing a different blackjack version. Yet, it still comes with the same winning probability of 42%.

Free Bet Blackjack

Free Bet Blackjack is a special variant where you’re able to make certain moves for free. Among the rules are increasing or doubling your bet mid-game whenever you have a hard 9, 10, or 11. You can also split or use two identical cards in two separate hands.

However, we must point out that this variant comes with a 1%, which is the highest of all blackjack versions. This reduces your chances of winning blackjack considerably. On the other hand, the payout is set at 3/2, which slightly evens out the setback.

Face-Up 21 Blackjack

Lastly, we have another popular blackjack version where all the cards on the table are face-up. It also comes with a pretty high house edge for a blackjack title, as it goes up to 0.85% But, the probability of winning stays at 42%, just like in other types of blackjack.

The winning odds here are 1/1, which is smaller than most versions of this casino game. You must also remember that in Face-Up 21 Blackjack, a tie can only end in a loss. Regardless of some of the less-convincing parameters, this variant is still good for beginners.

Blackjack Odds Comparison by Game Variations

At this stage, we’ll compare the odds of all blackjack versions, just so you know which of them offers the best odds. We’ll also include the house edge of each variant in case you want to calculate house advantage. In the table below, you will find all of these details.

Blackjack Variant House Edge Odds
American/Classic Blackjack 0.61% 3/2
European Blackjack 0.39% 3/2
Live Dealer Blackjack 0.49% - 0.72% 3/2
Switch Blackjack 0.58% 1/1
Free Bet Blackjack 1% 3/2
Face-Up 21 Blackjack 0.85% 1/1

Blackjack Return-to-Player Percentage

The return to play (RTP) percentage shows the amount you should expect after playing a large number of blackjack rounds. This parameter is actually the opposite of the house edge, as it highlights the player’s advantage instead of the dealer/house’s.

A typical game of blackjack comes with an average RTP percentage of around 99.5%. This percentage can vary from one game variant to another. It indicates that you should expect to end a long gaming session with $99.5 if you spend $100.

Blackjack House Edge

A blackjack house edge showcases the casino’s advantage in the game. The house edge in blackjack goes between 0.39% and 2%, depending on the game variant. It’s worth noting that these house edge percentages are in effect only if you use a basic strategy.

So, without the use of such a strategy, you won’t be able to lower the house edge. But the basic blackjack strategy as well as card counting work best only on a single-deck blackjack version. A variant that features more number decks lowers the effectiveness of most strategies.

How Do Rule Variations Influence the House Edge?

The house edge in a game of blackjack may go up or down depending on certain rules. For instance, the game increases the house edge by 0.2% if the dealer can hit a soft 17.

If the variation allows splitting aces, then you get to reduce the house edge by 0.13%. On the other hand, prohibiting this move increases the house advantage by 0.06%. Blackjack versions that feature several decks increase the house edge by 0.18%-0.5%.

In a variant where blackjack pays 6/5, the house edge goes up by 1.4%. There is even a blackjack version where the dealer doesn’t have a face-up card. This rule alone increases the house advantage by 0.11%.

Blackjack Probability Explained

As we mentioned earlier, the number of decks used in a game of blackjack can change the odds on the blackjack tables. For example, in single-deck blackjack, you have around 4.83% chance of getting a blackjack. Now, if you play six-deck blackjack, then the probability lowers to 4.75%.

This shows us that the probability of getting a blackjack decreases in multi-deck blackjack. However, if you play a video blackjack variant that uses RNGs, then the probability remains at 4.83%, regardless of the number of decks.

In the table below, you’ll find the probability of the blackjack games depending on the number of standard decks.

Number of Decks Probability
1 4.827%
2 4.78%
3 4.764%
4 4.757
5 4.752%
100 4.735%

Play Blackjack at Cryptorush

Now that you’ve finished understanding blackjack odds, it’s time to try out your luck and knowledge at the online casinos. Before you choose a blackjack title, remember that every variant comes with a different house edge and winning odds.

You can also play crypto blackjack if you fancy wagering anonymously with the use of cryptocurrency. We recommend doing that at Cryptorush, as this online casino offers a wide selection of blackjack casino games. It’s up to you to decide which blackjack variant you want to play with crypto.

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Jose Jose
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Jose is your go-to guide in the vibrant world of crypto casinos. With a passion for all things crypto and a natural talent for spinning engaging stories, he’s been exploring the ins and outs of the industry for years. Jose's journey through the digital currency space isn't just about following trends; it's about sharing the thrill of crypto gambling with a wider audience. At Cryptorush, he’s the mastermind behind content that gets you closer to the action, offering tips, reviews, and insights on the latest in crypto casino games and payments. Whether you're a seasoned player or new to the scene, Jose’s articles are your ticket to a winning streak.